by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
Friday, July 29, 2011
Port of Savannah Sets New Record, Yet Officials Question Expansion II
Another important question is when will Senator Hugh Leatherman, R-Florence, rhetorically divide cooperation again? And will Georgia be prepared for it? Leatherman is a very smart, respectable fellow. And he’s likable also. But it is obvious he wants to direct South Carolina financing to the Port of Charleston, not a Port of Jasper. Twice (2009 and 2011) he’s led his state into a pointless battle with Georgia.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Port of Savannah Sets New Record, Yet Officials Question Expansion
The Port of Savannah now boasts that its throughput topped 2.9 million containers in the last fiscal year. This is eleven percent more than last year Curtis Foltz, Executive Director of the Georgia Ports Authority, told the Associated Press.
The reason for this increase is obviously more imports and exports. The exports are going to China, India and Russia, while the imports are going to Wal-Mart.
Foltz said he does not believe 2012 will be another banner year due to the impact of unemployment and the housing slump on the global economy. The full details of this report can be found on Forbes.com.
At the same time, South Carolina and Georgia port officials agreed to further study a potential Jasper Ocean Terminal that shares the Savannah River. Apparently, the officials are “unsure whether [a Jasper Port] would benefit or suffer from plans to deepen the harbor to the nearby Port of Savannah,” according to a report in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
I suppose a question they are pondering is “If the Port of Savannah would benefit from a deeper river, would a Port of Jasper?” That question seems to be a no-brainer because it was already answered in 2010.
A more important question is, “Where do we put the muck from the bottom of the river as we deepen it?” Georgia said, “Simple, we’ll put it where the Jasper County Terminal will go to build up the area above sea level. And we’ll continue to put all of it there for the next 50 years.”
To which South Carolina said, “You want to put 22 miles worth of dredge in Jasper County for 50 years when the Jasper Port requires only 8 miles of dredging for a limited period of time? Yeah, right.”
It seems like South Carolina should just get over it (or under it, as the case may be) so we can move this project along. But the economic and environmental impacts of digging and placing the soil will affect both states for 50 years. These concerns are weightier than the dirt itself. And so the issue will be studied more. And rightfully so.
A. Joseph Marshall
Commercial Real Estate Agent
Savannah, Ga.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
The reason for this increase is obviously more imports and exports. The exports are going to China, India and Russia, while the imports are going to Wal-Mart.
Foltz said he does not believe 2012 will be another banner year due to the impact of unemployment and the housing slump on the global economy. The full details of this report can be found on Forbes.com.
At the same time, South Carolina and Georgia port officials agreed to further study a potential Jasper Ocean Terminal that shares the Savannah River. Apparently, the officials are “unsure whether [a Jasper Port] would benefit or suffer from plans to deepen the harbor to the nearby Port of Savannah,” according to a report in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
I suppose a question they are pondering is “If the Port of Savannah would benefit from a deeper river, would a Port of Jasper?” That question seems to be a no-brainer because it was already answered in 2010.
A more important question is, “Where do we put the muck from the bottom of the river as we deepen it?” Georgia said, “Simple, we’ll put it where the Jasper County Terminal will go to build up the area above sea level. And we’ll continue to put all of it there for the next 50 years.”
To which South Carolina said, “You want to put 22 miles worth of dredge in Jasper County for 50 years when the Jasper Port requires only 8 miles of dredging for a limited period of time? Yeah, right.”
It seems like South Carolina should just get over it (or under it, as the case may be) so we can move this project along. But the economic and environmental impacts of digging and placing the soil will affect both states for 50 years. These concerns are weightier than the dirt itself. And so the issue will be studied more. And rightfully so.
A. Joseph Marshall
Commercial Real Estate Agent
Savannah, Ga.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
Monday, July 25, 2011
Moody's Rose Colored CRE Reports Just Keep on Comin'
Moody's Investor Service reported on the 20th that the Commercial Property Price Index rose 6.3% since April 2011. I know this report is only for May and that they must publish monthly data. And I know that they're in the "publish or perish" industry. Furthermore, I know they do a good analytical job.
My beef with them (and others like them) is that the peculiarly focused minutia they report is memed all over the web as a clarion of good or bad news. For example, with this particular report, would the data have been as optimistic if they had included March (when the government passed a bill on the 2nd to keep the government open for another 2 weeks)? In March the Obama administration was grilled about it's trade relations with South Korea, China, etc... while it sought to "level the playing field." China also attacked the dollar and Chinese inflation went global. The news wasn't much better in April, but at least the goverment wasn't at risk of "shutting down."
So what does this have to do with CRE? It matters because commercial real estate doesn't operate outside of economic conditions. To over-simplify the issue, if there are really bad CRE and economic reports in March, and better reports in April, then yes of course data will look better if studied from April.
In fact, commercial real estate news in April was delusional at best. It was at the end of March that PwC released that stupid report which said CRE was improving because investment properties were selling faster. How can a blip in investment sales mark a glorious rise in the commerical real estate market? There was that much touted "self-sustaining recovery" report by Grosvenor. Contrarily, on March 22nd, Moody's reported that CRE prices decreased 2 months in a row.
More over Moody's tracks properties around the $3 million mark and up. It is no wonder then that prices appear to have increased in May when top tier properties and segments are propelling the market. Are they really giving us the whole picture? The Moody's report perhaps should've read "U.S. Commercial Property Prices Increased for Top Tier Properties in Desirable Markets by 6.3% in May." It's not catchy but at least we'd know what they're currently not telling us.
A. Joseph Marshall
Commercial Real Estate Agent
Savannah, Ga.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
My beef with them (and others like them) is that the peculiarly focused minutia they report is memed all over the web as a clarion of good or bad news. For example, with this particular report, would the data have been as optimistic if they had included March (when the government passed a bill on the 2nd to keep the government open for another 2 weeks)? In March the Obama administration was grilled about it's trade relations with South Korea, China, etc... while it sought to "level the playing field." China also attacked the dollar and Chinese inflation went global. The news wasn't much better in April, but at least the goverment wasn't at risk of "shutting down."
So what does this have to do with CRE? It matters because commercial real estate doesn't operate outside of economic conditions. To over-simplify the issue, if there are really bad CRE and economic reports in March, and better reports in April, then yes of course data will look better if studied from April.
In fact, commercial real estate news in April was delusional at best. It was at the end of March that PwC released that stupid report which said CRE was improving because investment properties were selling faster. How can a blip in investment sales mark a glorious rise in the commerical real estate market? There was that much touted "self-sustaining recovery" report by Grosvenor. Contrarily, on March 22nd, Moody's reported that CRE prices decreased 2 months in a row.
More over Moody's tracks properties around the $3 million mark and up. It is no wonder then that prices appear to have increased in May when top tier properties and segments are propelling the market. Are they really giving us the whole picture? The Moody's report perhaps should've read "U.S. Commercial Property Prices Increased for Top Tier Properties in Desirable Markets by 6.3% in May." It's not catchy but at least we'd know what they're currently not telling us.
A. Joseph Marshall
Commercial Real Estate Agent
Savannah, Ga.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
Friday, July 22, 2011
You Want to Fix the Economy? Here's a Start. (Let the howling commence.)
Charles Hugh Smith has some pretty far fetched ideas- read them for yourself at http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html. What he suggests here is draconian but is probably essential reform. I think it was Einstein who said (something like) that the minds who created the problem can't create the solution. By Charles Hugh Smith on Business Insider. A simple 8-point plan would restore both the banking and the real estate sectors, and end the political dominance of the parasitic "too big to fail" banks. Craven politicos and clueless Federal Reserve economists are always bleating about how they want to fix the U.S. economy and restore "aggregate demand." OK, here's how to start: 1. Force all banks to mark all their assets to market at the end of each trading day, including all derivatives of all types, including over-the-counter instruments.
2. Allow citizens to discharge all mortgage and student loan debt in bankruptcy court, just like any other debt.
3. Banks must mark all their real estate to market weekly as defined by "last sales of nearby properties" adjusted for square footage and other quantifiable measures (i.e. like Zillow.com).
4. Require mortgage servicers and all owners of mortgage-backed securities to mark every asset within each pool to market weekly.
5. Any mortgage, loan or note which was fraudulently originated, packaged and sold, including the misrepresentation of risk, the manipulation of risk ratings, fraudulent documentation by any party, etc., will be discharged as uncollectable and the full value wiped off the books and title records without recourse by any of the parties.
If a bank fraudulently originated a mortgage and the buyer misprepresented material facts on the mortgage documents, then both parties lose all claim to the note and the underlying asset, the house, which reverts to the FDIC for liquidation, with the proceeds going towards creditors' claims against the bank.
6. Any bank which misrepresents marked-to-market asset values will be fined $10 million per incident.
7. Any bank which is insolvent at the end of a trading day will be closed and taken over by the FDIC the following day, and liquidated in an orderly manner via open-market auctions of all assets, including REO (real estate owned).
8. All derivative positions held by the insolvent bank will be unwound immediately, and counterparties who fail to make good on their claims will also be closed, given to the FDIC and liquidated.
You know what this is, of course: a return to trustworthy, transparent accounting. And you know what the consequences would be, too: all five "too big to fail" banks would instantly be declared insolvent, and most of the other top-25 big banks would also be closed and liquidated.
At least $3 trillion in impaired residential mortgage debt would be written off, maybe more, and $1 trillion in impaired commercial real estate would also be written down. Derivative losses are unknown, but let's estimate it's at least $1 trillion and maybe much more.
If $5.8 trillion of fantasy "value" is wiped off the nation's books, that's only a 10% reduction in net household and non-profit assets, which total $58 trillion. Even an $11 trillion hit would only knock off 20%. If that's reality, if that's what the assets are really worth in the real world, then let's get it over with. Once we've restored truthful accounting and stopped living a grand series of debilitating lies, then the path will finally be clear for renewed growth.
The net result would be the destruction of the political power of the "too big to fail" banks, the clearing of the nation's bloated, diseased real estate market, and the restoration of trust in institutions which have been completely discredited.
Bank credit would flow again, and we could insist on a healthy competitive system of 250 small banks instead of a corrupting system of 5 insolvent parasitic monsters and 20 other bloated but equally insolvent financial parasites.
Those who lied would finally get fried. At long last, those who misprepresented income, risk, etc. would actually pay some price for their malfeasance. Criminal proceedings would be a nice icing on the cake, but simply ending the pretence of solvency would go a long way to restoring banking and real estate and ending regulatory capture by TBTF banks.
What's the downside to such a simple action plan? Oh boo-hoo, the craven politicos would lose their key campaign contributors. On the plus side, the politicos could finally wipe that brown stuff off their noses.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/you-want-to-fix-the-us-economy-heres-a-start-2011-7#ixzz1SgnjXsfe A. Joseph MarshallCommercial Real Estate AgentSavannah, Ga.
A. Joseph Marshall
Commercial Real Estate Agent
Savannah, Ga.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
2. Allow citizens to discharge all mortgage and student loan debt in bankruptcy court, just like any other debt.
3. Banks must mark all their real estate to market weekly as defined by "last sales of nearby properties" adjusted for square footage and other quantifiable measures (i.e. like Zillow.com).
4. Require mortgage servicers and all owners of mortgage-backed securities to mark every asset within each pool to market weekly.
5. Any mortgage, loan or note which was fraudulently originated, packaged and sold, including the misrepresentation of risk, the manipulation of risk ratings, fraudulent documentation by any party, etc., will be discharged as uncollectable and the full value wiped off the books and title records without recourse by any of the parties.
If a bank fraudulently originated a mortgage and the buyer misprepresented material facts on the mortgage documents, then both parties lose all claim to the note and the underlying asset, the house, which reverts to the FDIC for liquidation, with the proceeds going towards creditors' claims against the bank.
6. Any bank which misrepresents marked-to-market asset values will be fined $10 million per incident.
7. Any bank which is insolvent at the end of a trading day will be closed and taken over by the FDIC the following day, and liquidated in an orderly manner via open-market auctions of all assets, including REO (real estate owned).
8. All derivative positions held by the insolvent bank will be unwound immediately, and counterparties who fail to make good on their claims will also be closed, given to the FDIC and liquidated.
You know what this is, of course: a return to trustworthy, transparent accounting. And you know what the consequences would be, too: all five "too big to fail" banks would instantly be declared insolvent, and most of the other top-25 big banks would also be closed and liquidated.
At least $3 trillion in impaired residential mortgage debt would be written off, maybe more, and $1 trillion in impaired commercial real estate would also be written down. Derivative losses are unknown, but let's estimate it's at least $1 trillion and maybe much more.
If $5.8 trillion of fantasy "value" is wiped off the nation's books, that's only a 10% reduction in net household and non-profit assets, which total $58 trillion. Even an $11 trillion hit would only knock off 20%. If that's reality, if that's what the assets are really worth in the real world, then let's get it over with. Once we've restored truthful accounting and stopped living a grand series of debilitating lies, then the path will finally be clear for renewed growth.
The net result would be the destruction of the political power of the "too big to fail" banks, the clearing of the nation's bloated, diseased real estate market, and the restoration of trust in institutions which have been completely discredited.
Bank credit would flow again, and we could insist on a healthy competitive system of 250 small banks instead of a corrupting system of 5 insolvent parasitic monsters and 20 other bloated but equally insolvent financial parasites.
Those who lied would finally get fried. At long last, those who misprepresented income, risk, etc. would actually pay some price for their malfeasance. Criminal proceedings would be a nice icing on the cake, but simply ending the pretence of solvency would go a long way to restoring banking and real estate and ending regulatory capture by TBTF banks.
What's the downside to such a simple action plan? Oh boo-hoo, the craven politicos would lose their key campaign contributors. On the plus side, the politicos could finally wipe that brown stuff off their noses.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/you-want-to-fix-the-us-economy-heres-a-start-2011-7#ixzz1SgnjXsfe A. Joseph MarshallCommercial Real Estate AgentSavannah, Ga.
A. Joseph Marshall
Commercial Real Estate Agent
Savannah, Ga.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
Friday, July 15, 2011
Georgia Tops Watch List for Failed Banks
Trepp, LLC, a real estate research firm released a report last week that Georgia houses the most banks with a high risk of failure. This means that of the 200 at risk banks on Trepp's list a quarter of them are in Georgia and all of them have been on the list for at least a year.
Although the report doesn't disclose which banks are on the list, it does congratulate itself that Mountain Heritage Bank, McIntosh State Bank and Atlantic Bank and Trust (which had an office on East York Street) all failed and were also on their Watch List.
The good news is that the "loss severity eased very slightly in June" and that "the pace of closures continued to moderate". The loss severity is lower because the failed banks are small with a median assest size around $200 million.
As I've written before in prior blogs, Georgia has too many banks due to a previous and unofficial "open door" policy by the Department of Banking and Finance. No one wants to see a bank close and the FDIC take a loss. But it is an essential part of the economic recovery and the FDIC will also share in the recovery of non-performing loans due to loss sharing agreements.
A. Joseph Marshall
Commercial Real Estate Agent
Savannah, Ga.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
Although the report doesn't disclose which banks are on the list, it does congratulate itself that Mountain Heritage Bank, McIntosh State Bank and Atlantic Bank and Trust (which had an office on East York Street) all failed and were also on their Watch List.
The good news is that the "loss severity eased very slightly in June" and that "the pace of closures continued to moderate". The loss severity is lower because the failed banks are small with a median assest size around $200 million.
As I've written before in prior blogs, Georgia has too many banks due to a previous and unofficial "open door" policy by the Department of Banking and Finance. No one wants to see a bank close and the FDIC take a loss. But it is an essential part of the economic recovery and the FDIC will also share in the recovery of non-performing loans due to loss sharing agreements.
A. Joseph Marshall
Commercial Real Estate Agent
Savannah, Ga.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
Thursday, July 14, 2011
New Census Report Is Good News for Commerical Real Estate
Well the U.S. Census Bureaus’ latest construction spending report sends good news to CRE investors. The news is certainly encouraging to the construction industry, but also to new multi-family housing and commercial REIT investors.
In their latest report, private spending on commercial construction is up 1.2% over last month. As a whole we’re going to focus on that good news and not think about the fact that number also means a 5.1% decrease in spending from May last year.
We all know that multifamily housing is going to be in demand due at least to the fact that over 4.5 million home owners were foreclosed on since the recession began. And the census report shows it- construction for lodging is up 2.8% since last month. This seems to indicate there may not be enough rental units to house everyone in the future. I think we’ve noticed an uptick in apartments locally, like the renovation of the apartment buildings between Abercorn and Habersham near Habersham Village. Dawson Long, owner of The Chelsea at Five Points, also says vacancies are way down.
The slow increase in construction spending hasn’t gone unnoticed by major corporate investors, either. Michael Cembalest, JP Morgan’s CIO of Global Wealth Management, as reported by Business Insider, says that “there’s less new construction to impede a recovery, and prices have been marked down to reflect a new era of cautious underwriting.” And after suffering billions in losses in the CRE market, he’s recommending that people invest in commercial real estate. That goes for REITs as well as physical property. Chaster Johnson, CEO of CharlesFund, says REITs are a very hot topic among his investors. Cembalest sums up the situation: “The new realities of the commercial property markets have finally arrived; while they are painful for existing (pre-crisis) holders, they are more promising for new ones.”
Note: I am not a statistician and these statistics are reported by the Charleston Regional Business Journal.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
In their latest report, private spending on commercial construction is up 1.2% over last month. As a whole we’re going to focus on that good news and not think about the fact that number also means a 5.1% decrease in spending from May last year.
We all know that multifamily housing is going to be in demand due at least to the fact that over 4.5 million home owners were foreclosed on since the recession began. And the census report shows it- construction for lodging is up 2.8% since last month. This seems to indicate there may not be enough rental units to house everyone in the future. I think we’ve noticed an uptick in apartments locally, like the renovation of the apartment buildings between Abercorn and Habersham near Habersham Village. Dawson Long, owner of The Chelsea at Five Points, also says vacancies are way down.
The slow increase in construction spending hasn’t gone unnoticed by major corporate investors, either. Michael Cembalest, JP Morgan’s CIO of Global Wealth Management, as reported by Business Insider, says that “there’s less new construction to impede a recovery, and prices have been marked down to reflect a new era of cautious underwriting.” And after suffering billions in losses in the CRE market, he’s recommending that people invest in commercial real estate. That goes for REITs as well as physical property. Chaster Johnson, CEO of CharlesFund, says REITs are a very hot topic among his investors. Cembalest sums up the situation: “The new realities of the commercial property markets have finally arrived; while they are painful for existing (pre-crisis) holders, they are more promising for new ones.”
Note: I am not a statistician and these statistics are reported by the Charleston Regional Business Journal.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Commercial Construction Spending Reports
Well the U.S. Census Bureaus’ latest construction spending report sends good news to CRE investors. The news is certainly encouraging to the construction industry, but also to new multi-family housing and commercial REIT investors.
In their latest report, private spending on commercial construction is up 1.2% over last month. As a whole we’re going to focus on that good news and not think about the fact that number also means a 5.1% decrease in spending from May last year.
We all know that multifamily housing is going to be in demand due at least to the fact that over 4.5 million home owners were foreclosed on since the recession began. And the census report shows it- construction for lodging is up 2.8% since last month. This seems to indicate there may not be enough rental units to house everyone in the future. I think we’ve noticed an uptick in apartments locally, like the renovation of the apartment buildings between Abercorn and Habersham near Habersham Village. Dawson Long, owner of The Chelsea at Five Points, also says vacancies are way down.
The slow increase in construction spending hasn’t gone unnoticed by major corporate investors, either. Michael Cembalest, JP Morgan’s CIO of Global Wealth Management, as reported by Business Insider, says that “there’s less new construction to impede a recovery, and prices have been marked down to reflect a new era of cautious underwriting.” And after suffering billions in losses in the CRE market, he’s recommending that people invest in commercial real estate. That goes for REITs as well as physical property. Chaster Johnson, CEO of CharlesFund, says REITs are a very hot topic among his investors. Cembalest sums up the situation: “The new realities of the commercial property markets have finally arrived; while they are painful for existing (pre-crisis) holders, they are more promising for new ones.”
Note: I am not a statistician and these statistics are reported by the Charleston Regional Business Journal.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
In their latest report, private spending on commercial construction is up 1.2% over last month. As a whole we’re going to focus on that good news and not think about the fact that number also means a 5.1% decrease in spending from May last year.
We all know that multifamily housing is going to be in demand due at least to the fact that over 4.5 million home owners were foreclosed on since the recession began. And the census report shows it- construction for lodging is up 2.8% since last month. This seems to indicate there may not be enough rental units to house everyone in the future. I think we’ve noticed an uptick in apartments locally, like the renovation of the apartment buildings between Abercorn and Habersham near Habersham Village. Dawson Long, owner of The Chelsea at Five Points, also says vacancies are way down.
The slow increase in construction spending hasn’t gone unnoticed by major corporate investors, either. Michael Cembalest, JP Morgan’s CIO of Global Wealth Management, as reported by Business Insider, says that “there’s less new construction to impede a recovery, and prices have been marked down to reflect a new era of cautious underwriting.” And after suffering billions in losses in the CRE market, he’s recommending that people invest in commercial real estate. That goes for REITs as well as physical property. Chaster Johnson, CEO of CharlesFund, says REITs are a very hot topic among his investors. Cembalest sums up the situation: “The new realities of the commercial property markets have finally arrived; while they are painful for existing (pre-crisis) holders, they are more promising for new ones.”
Note: I am not a statistician and these statistics are reported by the Charleston Regional Business Journal.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
Monday, July 11, 2011
Reduced! Excellent hunting/recreational property also suitable for single family construction
20 acres in Hortense Ga, south of Jesup. Reduced- $60,000- all offers considered!! Ideal for hunting, canoeing, trapping, atv use. Ready for residential construction at any time.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
Innovation to End Recession
Wait a minute? What recession? I thought the recession ended in November of 2009? Michael Toma, Economics Professor at Armstrong Atlantic, wrote in Savannah 2011 Economics Trends that the local recession ended then. And Obama said that the national recession ended in June 2009 and has subsequently stated that the economy still needs work.
What's interesting is that business, both domestic and international, claim that the U.S. recession continues. On Wednesday, June 29, 2011 I wrote on sellingsavannahnow.blogspot.com/ about the Cassidy Turley economic forecast which said that technology is the only way to pull ourselves out of the recession. And I concluded that their forecast was doom and gloom, yet I was optimistic about the future.
This new article in the Gulf News gives me pause. Mick O'Reilly writes that this recession is more complex than a typical banking crisis and treating it as such will get the country no where. His interviewees say the recovery is unpredictable and uncertain. He concludes by saying "innovation is key"- which is exactly what the Cassidy Turley study said, albeit more specifically. Does this mean that all the government bailouts and qualitative easing isn't enough? Do we need a QE3? Apparently, but the government's solution to the recession isn't adequate. Innovation among businesses and institutions, together with the government, is the only way out.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
What's interesting is that business, both domestic and international, claim that the U.S. recession continues. On Wednesday, June 29, 2011 I wrote on sellingsavannahnow.blogspot.com/ about the Cassidy Turley economic forecast which said that technology is the only way to pull ourselves out of the recession. And I concluded that their forecast was doom and gloom, yet I was optimistic about the future.
This new article in the Gulf News gives me pause. Mick O'Reilly writes that this recession is more complex than a typical banking crisis and treating it as such will get the country no where. His interviewees say the recovery is unpredictable and uncertain. He concludes by saying "innovation is key"- which is exactly what the Cassidy Turley study said, albeit more specifically. Does this mean that all the government bailouts and qualitative easing isn't enough? Do we need a QE3? Apparently, but the government's solution to the recession isn't adequate. Innovation among businesses and institutions, together with the government, is the only way out.
by Joseph Marshall
Meet Joseph Here
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